Take it from philosopher Blaise Pascal: For students, preparing for the PSAT is a can't-lose proposition

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    In just over six weeks high school juniors will have the chance to take the PSAT, or National Merit Test. Those with scores in the top one percent of their state will become National Merit Semifinalists. The overwhelming majority of these students (15,000 of 16,000) will become National Merit Finalists.

    To score in the top one percent of Mississippians one need but post a score that is just above the national 97th percentile on the PSAT. On average our state’s students have lower scores, and so it’s easier to become a National Merit Finalist in Mississippi than in most states.
    I’ve written it before, but I’ll write it again. The National Merit Finalist designation carries with it some of the sweetest scholarships available to prospective college students. Ole Miss offers a free ride. Alabama and Oklahoma go one step further, offering 10 paid semesters, both undergraduate and graduate, plus free summers. Since most NM Finalists will arrive at college with more than 50 hours through AP classes and dual enrollment, these schools are essentially offering a free graduate, law, or medical degree. This can be worth a quarter of a million dollars to an out-of-state student.

    So it pays to put some effort into preparation for the PSAT. But don’t take my word on it. Take the advice of Seventeenth Century philosopher Blaise Pascal.
    They didn’t have the PSAT back in the 1600s, but Pascal advanced a theorem which provided a logical basis for believing in God. Essentially his theorem was that there was no penalty in believing in God and being wrong, but if one refused to believe and was wrong the result was eternal damnation.
    The chart at right sums up the possible outcomes for someone who believes or doesn’t believe in God. (Belief, by the way, means more than just detached observation, but rather belief with commitment; however, I’m not attempting any theological debate here).
    I’m not sure when I first heard of Pascal’s Wager, as it’s called. I actually had conducted the same mental exercise as a child of 8 or 9. But it’s an interesting way of looking at things, and in my view a valuable contribution to religious thought.
    One can use a variant of Pascal’s Wager as providing a real incentive to study for the PSAT, at least for those who have at least an outside chance of making the test’s Semifinalist cutoff score. There are four choices, based on two choices and two possible outcomes. One can prepare or not prepare. One can earn a high enough score to become a Semifinalist; or not.
    Those who attempt to become Finalists and fail will still be better students because of their preparation. They will likely have higher grades and score higher on the ACT and SAT. Even if they don't bag the National Merit scholarship, they might improve their scores enough for other merit aid. And of course, those who don't prepare and just barely fail to make the Semifinalist cutoff will be forever burdened with the knowledge that massive amounts of money could have been theirs with just a slight bit of effort.
    I’ve put all of this in the chart which is at the top of this blog post. If this doesn't convince your student to prepare for the PSAT, I'll end by offering this poem by William F. O'Brien.

Better To Try And Fail Than Never To Try At All

by William F. OBrien

Some say risk nothing, try only for the sure thing,
Others say nothing gambled nothing gained,
Go all out for your dream.
Life can be lived either way, but for me,
I'd rather try and fail, than never try at all, you see.

Some say "Don't ever fall in love,
Play the game of life wide open,
Burn your candle at both ends."
But I say "No! It's better to have loved and lost,
Than never to have loved at all, my friend."

When many moons have gone by,
And you are alone with your dreams of yesteryear,
All your memories will bring you cheer.
You'll be satisfied, succeed or fail, win or lose,
Knowing the right path you did choose.

Bright eighth- through tenth-graders need to take the PSAT on October 15; call your school today!

    The PSAT or National Merit test is going to be given at virtually every high school in the nation on October 15.
    Juniors who score in the top one percent of their state and qualify as Finalists get full-ride scholarships to about half the schools in the SEC, plus many more. These schools have outstanding honors colleges. A student who was in roughly the 97.8th percentile of last year's test-takers was in the top one percent of Mississippians and thus earned Semifinalist honors. Usually a score in the 97.5th percentile is sufficient for Mississippians.
    The test isn't just for juniors. In fact, the College Board reports that 54 percent of those taking the test are in 10th grade or below. Why? Practice!
    How should a parent know whether their children have a chance to make National Merit Semifinalist? Simple. If they have scored well on other nationally normed tests then they should, with practice, score well on the PSAT.
    My view is that any Duke TIP participant who scored a 21 or higher on the ACT in seventh grade ought to be a National Merit Semifinalist in Mississippi, provided they work at it. Part of that "work" is taking the PSAT as an eighth, ninth- and tenth-grader to get a snapshot of where they stand.
    Don't expect the eighth- and ninth-grade scores to be anywhere near the cutoff level, either. The college board hasn't released the percentiles for these groups, but I'd guess that a score of 160 in eighth grade, 175 in ninth, and 190 in tenth will put students within striking range of the 203-210 that they will need to be Mississippi Semifinalists.
    As I've said before, the PSAT is the most important test that really bright students will take in their entire lifetime. Yet it's not even on most people's radar.
    If your 8-10th grade child has past test scores placing him in the top decile, call your school's guidance counselor today and make sure he is signed up to take the PSAT on October 15. A free-ride is a financial miracle; the honor of being a National Merit Finalist is priceless.

Madison Central has 21 of 135 National Merit winners; four Semifinalists home-schooled

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    Listed at right (click to enlarge) are most or all of Mississippi's National Merit Semifinalists, as well as their high school
    I'm going to be blogging quite a bit over the next couple of weeks about the PSAT and National Merit Exam. My reason for giving it so much attention is simple: the PSAT is the most important examination that any really bright student will ever take.
    Sure, the ACT, SAT, LSAT, GMAT, GRE, and so forth are important. But they can be taken more than once. Taking the PSAT is like hunting with a single-shot shotgun; one shot is all you get, so you have to be ready. The rewards are immense, with numerous universities with great honors colleges offering automatic free rides to National Merit Finalists.
    Oxford High School had fewer Semifinalists than in past years, but four out of 200 is still a better showing than the overwhelming majority of schools.
    Items of interest in this year's scores:
    ● Mississippi has 135 National Merit Semifinalists this year, representing approximately the top one percent of Mississippi high school graduates. The cutoff score for Mississippi this year was 207, the same as last year. The national cutoff score for Commended status was 201, a two-point drop from last year.
    ● Tupelo got a National Merit Semifinalist! Tupelo High School used to be a real National Merit powerhouse, with as many as 11 Semifinalists in one year. They allowed things to slide, and for the past two years have had none. In an effort to break the slump Tupelo last year offered a nine-week PSAT-prep class limited to those students with a chance of making it. One did. Congratulations Tupelo!
    ● Four Mississippi Semifinalists are home-schooled, which I found surprising. Perhaps I could teach my children if they would listen to me or obey me, but they won't. Nor do I have the time! I want to know how these parents got they children to obey!
    ● DeSoto County has 15 Semifinalists this year, which I believe to be a record. DeSoto County is known for good schools and test scores but it hasn't been known for producing lots of National Merit Scholars; perhaps that is going to change. Also interesting is where the finalists came from. Five came from DeSoto Central, probably the best and most affluent school in DeSoto County. Five came from Southaven High; three from Olive Branch High School, one from Lewisburg High School, and one home schooler.
    There has been a trickle white- and affluent-flight going on in DeSoto County for several years now, as residents seem to be favoring DeSoto Central and more-recently Lewisburg. I have some friends who bought a weekday-house in the DeSoto Central school district some time back so their child could attend. But very bright students apparently are still getting a fine education at both Southaven High and Olive Branch High.
    ● Jackson Prep had nine NMSFs, the best of any private school save for St. Andrew's School, which had 12. St. Andrew's has a reputation for being incredibly liberal, as in li-ber-ul; just something to keep in mind if you don't want your kids getting a lot of strange ideas. (Don't get me wrong, I have friends who went to St. Andrew's. Liberal friends, who when telling people where they attended high school refer to it as "that liberal school" in a country-boy accent.)
    ● Northwest Rankin High School had eight Semifinalists. These folks were not on my radar; congrats!
    ● The Mississippi School for Math and Science has 10 Semifinalists. MSMS doesn't deserve the credit for this as these students were newly arrived when the took the PSAT, but it does show that there is a quality student body at the school.
    ● Madison Central High School apparently wears the National Merit crown, with 21 Semifinalists. This is out of about 550 students, and so represents four percent of the student body. Last year Oxford was the top open-enrollment public school in terms of percentages, with about 5.5 percent Semifinalists. Hopefully it will be again next year.