All That Money, Make It Make Sense
11 hours ago
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
A great South Dakota ad, and both candidates like it!
In one of the more unusual campaigns ads of the year, this South Dakota ad, presented in Mission Impossible fashion, presents Democrat House challenger Matt Varilek as a sort of globe-trotting Eco-villian while incumbent Kristi Noem was busy running the family farm, being named Farmer of the Year and being elected first to the state legislature and then to Congress.
The race has now become a contest between a globe-trotting, Green-Party-wannabe, corn-dog-eating, beer- and Jägermeister-swilling Democrat who has spent most of his adult life out of South Dakota and a Republican, Palinesque mom who raised her kids while managing the family farm and then found her way into politics as a state legislator and Congressman.
What's odd about the ad is that it solidifies support for both candidates. Varilek's campaign took the unusual step of forwarding the video link to its entire email list, and supporters have shared it with numerous blogs. The gossip website Gawker called the video “an excellent ad for her Democratic opponent.”
Republicans seem happy with the ad, which has gone viral. If I knew neither candidate it would certainly make me almost certain to vote for Noem. Most of my liberal friends would see it and likely become die-hard Varilek supporters.
Great way to save money on ads. Just create ads that both candidates can agree on.
h/t Jackson Jambalaya
Monday, October 29, 2012
Predicting effect of Hurricane Sandy on election like predicting the weather itself
Hurricane Sandy is the ultimate wildcard in the final week of the election cycle. Will it help Romney or Obama? I don't know.
I think it will freeze the race in place a little bit. All eyes will be focused on weather news. Of course, Romney has saved a tremendous amount of his advertising budget for the last 10 days of the campaign, so presumably lots of eyes will see these campaign commercials. Except perhaps for the needed eyes of Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where the electricity may be out.
Romney's last week of advertising is likely to be upbeat in nature. Campaigns beat up their opponents all through the election cycle and then go positive in the last week. This positive message will play well during a time of disaster. Of course, Obama is going to be able to do a better job of providing disaster relief than Bush was during Katrina, since the recipients Hurricane Sandy aid probably won't be shooting at those trying to help them.
Early voting was shut down Saturday and will be shut down for the next few days on the Eastern Seaboard. Coaxing people to go to the polls who might not have the discipline to go on Election Day was considered an important part of the Obama election strategy.
Obama is no doubt glad to have everyone's attention turned away from Libya, where the most recent reports are that troops were set ready, willing, and able to rescue our ambassador and other Americans but that he refused to allow it. Will we find out before Election Day why Gen. Carter Ham was relieved of duty? Was it because he was about to rescue our citizens without receiving authorization to do so? Thanks to Hurricane Sandy, this issue may be blown away until after the election.
There is some evidence that unpleasant events having absolutely nothing to do with the election can affect the outcome; voters tend to vote against the party in power when they are in a disgruntled mood. A Reuters new story suggests the outcome of the Ohio State-Illinois football game this weekend might well have an effect on voting behavior the following Tuesday. One study has found that a victory by a popular home team is worth 1.6 percentage points to the incumbent candidate. So if Ohio State loses, unhappy voters might take their frustrations out on Obama.
The same article cites a study that shows that voters in coastal New Jersey towns apparently took out their frustrations over a spate of shark attacks on Woodrow Wilson, who was running for re-election, with these findings based on voting patterns on inland towns versus those of the coastal ones.
Will voters take their frustrations about Hurricane Sandy out on Obama? My guess is that it will be too soon. If anything, the storm may help the president as there tends to be a "let's all pull together" attitude after a major disaster. It's only when hardships continue that people become frustrated and surly, and by that time the election will have come and gone.
More problematic for Obama may be getting voters to the polls. Republicans tend to be more reliable voters; Democrats require more cajoling. If voting requires additional hardship in Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshipe and Maine's Second Congressional District it could be a real game changer.
It's sort of like watching a football game in a rainstorm. We all know the odds have been changed, but most of us don't know which team will benefit.
I think it will freeze the race in place a little bit. All eyes will be focused on weather news. Of course, Romney has saved a tremendous amount of his advertising budget for the last 10 days of the campaign, so presumably lots of eyes will see these campaign commercials. Except perhaps for the needed eyes of Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where the electricity may be out.
Romney's last week of advertising is likely to be upbeat in nature. Campaigns beat up their opponents all through the election cycle and then go positive in the last week. This positive message will play well during a time of disaster. Of course, Obama is going to be able to do a better job of providing disaster relief than Bush was during Katrina, since the recipients Hurricane Sandy aid probably won't be shooting at those trying to help them.
Early voting was shut down Saturday and will be shut down for the next few days on the Eastern Seaboard. Coaxing people to go to the polls who might not have the discipline to go on Election Day was considered an important part of the Obama election strategy.
Obama is no doubt glad to have everyone's attention turned away from Libya, where the most recent reports are that troops were set ready, willing, and able to rescue our ambassador and other Americans but that he refused to allow it. Will we find out before Election Day why Gen. Carter Ham was relieved of duty? Was it because he was about to rescue our citizens without receiving authorization to do so? Thanks to Hurricane Sandy, this issue may be blown away until after the election.
There is some evidence that unpleasant events having absolutely nothing to do with the election can affect the outcome; voters tend to vote against the party in power when they are in a disgruntled mood. A Reuters new story suggests the outcome of the Ohio State-Illinois football game this weekend might well have an effect on voting behavior the following Tuesday. One study has found that a victory by a popular home team is worth 1.6 percentage points to the incumbent candidate. So if Ohio State loses, unhappy voters might take their frustrations out on Obama.
The same article cites a study that shows that voters in coastal New Jersey towns apparently took out their frustrations over a spate of shark attacks on Woodrow Wilson, who was running for re-election, with these findings based on voting patterns on inland towns versus those of the coastal ones.
Will voters take their frustrations about Hurricane Sandy out on Obama? My guess is that it will be too soon. If anything, the storm may help the president as there tends to be a "let's all pull together" attitude after a major disaster. It's only when hardships continue that people become frustrated and surly, and by that time the election will have come and gone.
More problematic for Obama may be getting voters to the polls. Republicans tend to be more reliable voters; Democrats require more cajoling. If voting requires additional hardship in Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshipe and Maine's Second Congressional District it could be a real game changer.
It's sort of like watching a football game in a rainstorm. We all know the odds have been changed, but most of us don't know which team will benefit.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Does Obama care enough about the poor to let someone give them $5 million?
Does Barack Obama really care about the poor?
He says he does, but that's just good politics. Donald Trump has offered to give $5 million to the charity of President Obama's choice. All Obama has to do is release his college records and passport applications.
That seems reasonable enough. Would you release your college records and passport applications in exchange for a $5 million (or even $5,000) charitable donation? I would. I bet Mitt Romney would. He gives millions to charity every year anyway -- on a percentage basis about twice of what Obama gives.
Let's hold both candidates to the same standard. Certainly it's time for Romney to agree to release his college records and passport applications in exchange for someone giving a $5 million charitable donation to his charities. It's time to see which candidate is really caring.
So does Obama really care about the poor or not? We'll see.
He says he does, but that's just good politics. Donald Trump has offered to give $5 million to the charity of President Obama's choice. All Obama has to do is release his college records and passport applications.
That seems reasonable enough. Would you release your college records and passport applications in exchange for a $5 million (or even $5,000) charitable donation? I would. I bet Mitt Romney would. He gives millions to charity every year anyway -- on a percentage basis about twice of what Obama gives.
Let's hold both candidates to the same standard. Certainly it's time for Romney to agree to release his college records and passport applications in exchange for someone giving a $5 million charitable donation to his charities. It's time to see which candidate is really caring.
So does Obama really care about the poor or not? We'll see.
Leave 'tipsy' walkers alone, but throw the vandals and rowdies in jail
Following the first home football game the Oxford Eagle carried a story stating that Oxford Police were cracking down on “drunk walkers.”
Needless to say, this story created a great deal of concern for many of us, who would rather have tipsy students walk than drive. The notion of arresting students who are making wise choices just seems outrageous.
So I did what any citizen would do. I snatched up my phone and called the mayor. Oxford mayor Pat Patterson is an old friend. His mother was my sixth-grade teacher, he roomed with my brother in college and he provided me with part-time employment from time to time as a student. So we can speak freely.
And what Pat told me in no uncertain terms is that there is no city policy to arrest “drunk walkers.” And in fact, Pat gave me an internal police memo written before the Oxford Eagle story that said as much. I’m not going to reprint the whole memo as it contains some internal police content, but here’s a portion:
But students and others do need to understand that there are some real problems with having several thousand drunken college students roaming the streets at midnight. Vandalism is a serious problem. Loud noise is a serious problem. As a parent with two children, I’ve come to expect a certain amount of screaming at 1 a.m., but there does need to be a limit.
A couple of weeks ago an 80-year-old man had his front door bashed in by a drunken student who was confused as to his place of residence. If the key don’t fit, dude, maybe you’re at the wrong place! It’s a fine line: Do the police wait until the student bashes in an old man’s door, or do they arrest him as he stumbles down the sidewalk, clearly in a drunken stupor?
Much of the problem that Oxford has with rowdy students has to do with the university’s crackdown on student drinking in fraternity houses. There was a time – a better time – when students drank beer and partied in their fraternity houses and if they had too much to drink they went upstairs and found a spare sofa and sacked out for the night. So Fraternity Row has essentially moved to the Oxford Square.
If the university wants to send its students into Oxford to drink and make merry, that’s fine. But the university ought to pony up some money to help police these kids to make sure they get home safely without harming or disturbing the residents of Oxford. It’s not too much to ask.
If Oxford Police are arresting students who are just a little bit tipsy and not causing a disturbance – say a blood alcohol content of below .15 – then they shouldn’t and the city should take measures to stop them. I do not doubt that there have been some “innocent” students arrested, and the city officials and police chiefs need to work together to see to it that these arrests do not happen.
At the same time vandalism is a serious problem. Late-night noise is a serious problem. Stumbling drunk students are a problem. The police have a duty to get these kids off the street and to protect the local citizenry.
So the best advice for drunk students leaving bars is this: If you are really drunk, or feel the urge to make a lot of racket or tear something up, take a taxi home.
Needless to say, this story created a great deal of concern for many of us, who would rather have tipsy students walk than drive. The notion of arresting students who are making wise choices just seems outrageous.
So I did what any citizen would do. I snatched up my phone and called the mayor. Oxford mayor Pat Patterson is an old friend. His mother was my sixth-grade teacher, he roomed with my brother in college and he provided me with part-time employment from time to time as a student. So we can speak freely.
And what Pat told me in no uncertain terms is that there is no city policy to arrest “drunk walkers.” And in fact, Pat gave me an internal police memo written before the Oxford Eagle story that said as much. I’m not going to reprint the whole memo as it contains some internal police content, but here’s a portion:
“As you are aware we have had an increase in students walking home from the bars. This is great news and shows they are trying to do the right thing. But this also brings other problems.Now I’m sure that there have been arrests made over the years that shouldn’t have been made. Following the 2006 death of UPD officer Robert Langley, who was dragged to his death by a drunken Ole Miss student, police were very aggressive about arresting students who had been drinking, whether they were on foot or behind the wheel. But it is not current policy to bother students on foot who aren’t disturbing the peace or breaking the law.
“The main problem is the increase in vandalism and noise disturbances on their way home. They have been knocking over mail boxes, stealing chairs off porches, dumping trash cans over, etc. etc.etc.
“We will have Zero Tolerance for anyone being public drunk, loud, disorderly or trying to destroy someone else’s property. In saying this I do not expect people who are not causing a disturbance to be arrested.”
But students and others do need to understand that there are some real problems with having several thousand drunken college students roaming the streets at midnight. Vandalism is a serious problem. Loud noise is a serious problem. As a parent with two children, I’ve come to expect a certain amount of screaming at 1 a.m., but there does need to be a limit.
A couple of weeks ago an 80-year-old man had his front door bashed in by a drunken student who was confused as to his place of residence. If the key don’t fit, dude, maybe you’re at the wrong place! It’s a fine line: Do the police wait until the student bashes in an old man’s door, or do they arrest him as he stumbles down the sidewalk, clearly in a drunken stupor?
Much of the problem that Oxford has with rowdy students has to do with the university’s crackdown on student drinking in fraternity houses. There was a time – a better time – when students drank beer and partied in their fraternity houses and if they had too much to drink they went upstairs and found a spare sofa and sacked out for the night. So Fraternity Row has essentially moved to the Oxford Square.
If the university wants to send its students into Oxford to drink and make merry, that’s fine. But the university ought to pony up some money to help police these kids to make sure they get home safely without harming or disturbing the residents of Oxford. It’s not too much to ask.
If Oxford Police are arresting students who are just a little bit tipsy and not causing a disturbance – say a blood alcohol content of below .15 – then they shouldn’t and the city should take measures to stop them. I do not doubt that there have been some “innocent” students arrested, and the city officials and police chiefs need to work together to see to it that these arrests do not happen.
At the same time vandalism is a serious problem. Late-night noise is a serious problem. Stumbling drunk students are a problem. The police have a duty to get these kids off the street and to protect the local citizenry.
So the best advice for drunk students leaving bars is this: If you are really drunk, or feel the urge to make a lot of racket or tear something up, take a taxi home.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Holly Springs First Baptist to celebrate 175th year this Sunday; former youth get together Saturday
Needless to say, all members, former members, friends of members, friends of former members, prospective members, community members, and first, second, and third cousins once, twice, or thrice removed of all of the above are invited to attend.
Former pastor Dr. Earl Kelly is scheduled to be in attendance and will speak briefly. Dr. Kelly was pastor in the late 1950s and early 1960s during a period of substantial growth for the church and went on to serve as Executive Director of the Mississippi Baptist Convention for many years. His sermons were said to have the power to cause chandeliers to drop, gas pipelines to explode and ravens to fly ominously around the sanctuary. (Anyone wanting to know what I'm referring to will just have to attend the anniversary service and ask).
First Baptist welcomed a new pastor just a few weeks ago, Dr. Joe Lusby. Dr. Lusby is originally from Tupelo. He received a Bachelor of Arts from Ole Miss, a Master of Divinity from Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary, and a Doctor of Ministry from Louisiana Baptist University. He was most recently the pastor at First Baptist Church, Greenfield, TN, where he served for 14 years. He has also pastored churches in Braxton, Olive Branch, and Tunica, MS. Dr. Lusby is married to Patty Watkins Lusby, originally from Abbeville, and they have three children, Kyle, Kayla, and Kristen.
Milton Bell has helped to organize a reunion of former youth ministers and participants in the music and other youth programs in the church. Must of us are now almost eligible for the Young at Heart program! At any rate, since something is already scheduled for the church for this Saturday, a get together is planned for 5:30 p.m. at Clancy's Cafe in Red Banks. Milton said Ralph and Jean Thomason of Southaven are planning to attend, as are Howard and Linda Fuller. Lyndia lived with our family for a couple of months after Howard moved to wherever (St. Louis?) so she could finish some coursework at Ole Miss before she moved to join him. I'm planning to attend and look forward to seeing all of them. Bring the kids. For a few, bring the grandkids! For more information call Milton at 662-306-3736.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
As usual, nma.tv has best debate coverage
Nma.tv says Obama won the Oct. 16, 2012 Town Hall debate by a nose. I wish we had this type of news coverage on the major networks!
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Donate to Oxford United Way, earn Delta Skymiles; give to Komen, get AA miles
If you are thinking about giving to the United Way of Oxford-Lafayette County, Delta Airlines is making your decision a little easier.
SkyMiles members who donate to their local United Way online between October 11 and November 11, 2012 will earn a one-time bonus of 1,000 miles for a donation of $50-124; 2,500 miles for a donation of $125-299; or up to a maximum 5,000 miles for a donation of $300 or more. To get the Skymiles, you need to use a special web portal, found here. Of course, you are free to donate more than $300, but you won't get any extra Skymiles.
To maximize Skymiles earnings you need to give either $50 or $125.
I don't think the United Way is losing anything on this deal; Delta is just donating the miles. At one time I valued Skymiles at two cents each, so by that formula the 1,000 miles one receives from a $50 donation would be worth $20. My guess is that they are now worth closer to 1.5 cents each, making the miles worth $15 -- although in an emergency they can sometimes be worth more than a nickle each. The cost to buy 1,000 miles from Delta would be $35.
In any event, by my calculation this is a way for me to give $50 to my local United Way while receiving a $15 rebate. Everybody wins!
Now that you're feeling charitable and have helped out the local United Way, I'll tell you about another deal that in my opinion is just as good if not better. American Airlines has a Miles for the Cure promotion in which it is offering 15 miles for every dollar donated to Susan G. Komen for the Cure, up to a maximum of 60,000 miles.
So the $50 donation that earns 1,000 Delta Skymiles will only earn 750 AAdvantage Miles. But AA miles are far more valuable than Delta miles. And while Delta miles never expire, AA miles do, so it's a good idea to "poke" your inactive AA account from time to time with miles earn from car rentals, hotel stays or charitable donations.
And the AAdvantage miles rebate can be pretty rich. A $3,000 gift to Komen will generate 50,000 miles, which is enough for two off-peak tickets to the Caribbean, and unlike the case with Delta, with American you can sometimes actually book an award ticket. In the past the IRS has treated airline miles as de minimis, however I am not offering advice, just making an observation.
Some of you are upset. I can sense it. You wanted to donate more but Komen gifts are effectively capped at $3,600 and 60,000 AA miles. Be of good heart as there is still hope!
You can earn even more American miles for donations to the National Foundation for Cancer Research, and we are not talking chicken feed. Your donation of $66,667 will earn you One Million chilly-willy AAdvantage miles. Lesser donations earn fewer miles. Where can you go with a million miles? Anywhere you want. Repeatedly.
Anyone wishing to make a donations in my honor (and to benefit my frequent flyer account) should feel free to do so!.
SkyMiles members who donate to their local United Way online between October 11 and November 11, 2012 will earn a one-time bonus of 1,000 miles for a donation of $50-124; 2,500 miles for a donation of $125-299; or up to a maximum 5,000 miles for a donation of $300 or more. To get the Skymiles, you need to use a special web portal, found here. Of course, you are free to donate more than $300, but you won't get any extra Skymiles.
To maximize Skymiles earnings you need to give either $50 or $125.
I don't think the United Way is losing anything on this deal; Delta is just donating the miles. At one time I valued Skymiles at two cents each, so by that formula the 1,000 miles one receives from a $50 donation would be worth $20. My guess is that they are now worth closer to 1.5 cents each, making the miles worth $15 -- although in an emergency they can sometimes be worth more than a nickle each. The cost to buy 1,000 miles from Delta would be $35.
In any event, by my calculation this is a way for me to give $50 to my local United Way while receiving a $15 rebate. Everybody wins!
___________________
Now that you're feeling charitable and have helped out the local United Way, I'll tell you about another deal that in my opinion is just as good if not better. American Airlines has a Miles for the Cure promotion in which it is offering 15 miles for every dollar donated to Susan G. Komen for the Cure, up to a maximum of 60,000 miles.
So the $50 donation that earns 1,000 Delta Skymiles will only earn 750 AAdvantage Miles. But AA miles are far more valuable than Delta miles. And while Delta miles never expire, AA miles do, so it's a good idea to "poke" your inactive AA account from time to time with miles earn from car rentals, hotel stays or charitable donations.
And the AAdvantage miles rebate can be pretty rich. A $3,000 gift to Komen will generate 50,000 miles, which is enough for two off-peak tickets to the Caribbean, and unlike the case with Delta, with American you can sometimes actually book an award ticket. In the past the IRS has treated airline miles as de minimis, however I am not offering advice, just making an observation.
_____________________
Some of you are upset. I can sense it. You wanted to donate more but Komen gifts are effectively capped at $3,600 and 60,000 AA miles. Be of good heart as there is still hope!
You can earn even more American miles for donations to the National Foundation for Cancer Research, and we are not talking chicken feed. Your donation of $66,667 will earn you One Million chilly-willy AAdvantage miles. Lesser donations earn fewer miles. Where can you go with a million miles? Anywhere you want. Repeatedly.
Anyone wishing to make a donations in my honor (and to benefit my frequent flyer account) should feel free to do so!.
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