New National Merit Class of 2017 cutoff predictions: Commended, 207, Mississippi 209-210

UPDATE 2/27/2016: I have updated the headline to this post to change my prediction for Commended status to 207. It's also possible that a score of 209 in Mississippi could meet the cutoff. I misread the percentile chart on the Hispanic scores by one percent, and as a result I may have beeen one point too conservative in my estimates. With that said, Commended may still be a 208; the scores are, as I've said, incredibly clumpy.

    Several weeks ago I wrote about the College Board’s release of PSAT scores and gave my prediction for Mississippi’s cutoff score for the Class of 2017 – in other words, the “Selection Index” score required to be named a National Merit Semifinalist. I said it would be a 204. Ha!
    This entire process is a mystery to most people, but each state gets its own cutoff score, designed to recognize the top one percent of students in each state. These cutoffs vary according to how well students in a state perform, so Mississippi and West Virginia, for example, have lower cutoff scores than Massachusetts and Connecticut.
    I’ve written about the PSAT extensively for several years, and you can read some of my old blog posts by clicking here. Earning National Merit Finalist status is a pretty sweet deal, since it can result in free-ride scholarships at a number of good universities.

Just add 6 or 7

    There have been some major changes in the PSAT, and juniors this year took an entirely new test with a new scoring system. I believe the PSAT for 2015 was poorly designed, to put it mildly, in that it tended to be difficult for average students, while the brightest students were able to complete the test with few missed questions. So the test didn't provide the differentiation on the high end that was needed.
    Prior to officially administering the test, the College Board gave the new PSAT to a large representative sample of 11th graders to establish score percentile norms, but it is my opinion that they forgot to account for “preppers” when creating this sample. It has become increasingly common for very bright students to “prep” for the PSAT, and a few high schools with a relatively small number of “preppers” can completely throw the score distribution for a loop. That’s what I think happened, and why I think there was a one-month delay in the release of the scores. I think the College Board executives were just gobsmacked by the results and probably spent a month with everyone running in circles wringing their hands.
    Based on a Selection Index chart release by the College Board, I predicted back on Jan. 13 that Mississippi’s cutoff score would be 204, with the caveat that my prediction was based on the information they provided. Well, the information they provided is now believed to be pretty lousy, to put it mildly. Based on their charts, schools all over were quietly reporting that they had a bumper crop of National Merit winners. Well, no, it just ain’t so.
    On Feb. 8, based on some new information I updated my original column and wrote that Mississippi’s cutoff would be higher, and I thought Mississippi’s cutoff would be 206, 207, or perhaps even higher. Well, I’m pretty sure it’s going to be higher still, and I’m sorry for that, because I know some of the kids who are likely to be left out of the process. I’m hoping my kid won’t be one of them.
    I have been snooping on the CollegeConfidential.com website, and apparently the cutoff scores for the National Hispanic Recognition Program are out, roughly six months ahead of those for regular Semifinalists. The NHRP recognizes Hispanics who score in the top one percent of Hispanics taking the test in their region. By looking at these scores, we can get an idea of where other scores might fall.
    For example, last year the Hispanic cutoff score for the “South” region was 199, which was in the mid-range of the 95th percentile. This year it’s 204. Since ethnic groups tend to perform the same over time, we can be reasonably certain a score of 204 is in the 95th percentile.
    By adjusting the scores in such a way as to put 204 into the 95th percentile on the faulty SI chart, I have concluded that a score of 208 is going to be needed for Commended status; there is some chance that a score of 207 will do the trick.
    I won’t bore you with any more of my reasoning, save to say that I believe the formula for determining most sub-99 percentile state’s cutoff scores is to do the following:

    1. Study your state’s cutoff scores over the past several years and decide what percentile, including tenths, best represents your state.
    2. Use the VERY faulty Selection Index that the College Board provided to find the score which you feel most closely matches your selected percentile. I’ve included this incorrect and faulty index on this page. This is obviously an inexact science!
    3. Add seven. For states with cutoffs very close to or just inside the 99th percentile, adding six might do the trick. To be conservative, add eight. (If you add nine and still make the cut, you can start celebrating!).

    Mississippi’s cutoff score has been rising, primarily due to year-long prep classes being conducted by DeSoto County Schools and Madison Central High School, among others. Last year it was 209, which was roughly in the 98.5th percentile. The scores were supposed to drop this year due to the new test with a lowered top score, but they aren’t going to.
    If we look at this year’s incorrect College Board SI chart, we find that a score in the 98.5th percentile is roughly equal to a score of 203. If we add seven to this we get 210, which is now my prediction for Mississippi’s National Merit cutoff score. I am not particularly happy with this prediction, but it is what it is.
    Predictions are just that. The cutoff could be 209, or 211, or God forbid, even 212, at which point there will be tears at my house (from me). But 210 or 211 seem like the numbers to watch, and 208 seems most likely for Commended, with the possibility of 207 making the cut.
    Note, by the way, how incredibly compressed these scores are. The Class of 2016 had a Commended score of 202 and a Mississippi cutoff of 209, a difference of seven points. This year I'm suggesting the Commended cutoff will be 208 and the Mississippi cutoff will be 210 or 211. These percentiles are so clumpy that the National Merit Corporation may have a very difficult time setting cutoffs. A Mississippi cutoff of 209 might represent two percent of our state's students while a cutoff of 210 might only include one-half of one percent. I predict massive problems and some squawking over how this is dealt with.
    The College Board did a real disservice to test takers by putting out false percentile charts. It created a lot of false hopes, and I think they have just done a terrible job with everything they have done with the new PSAT. And it’s not just the PSAT; they’ve damaged the SAT as well, with all kinds of Three Stooges types of stupidity. It may not be long before the SAT will be featured in a business school case study on “How to Destroy a Brand.”
    But that’s another story. My prediction for Class of 2017 Commended cutoff: 208, maybe 207. Mississippi cutoff: 210, 60%; 209, 10%; 211, 20%; 212, 10%.
    I’ve made two earlier predictions which I decided were wrong. I may return next week with a different song. But I think we are slowly bracketing in on what scores will be needed for the brass ring, despite the efforts of the College Board to keep us all in the dark. They could provide all of this information for us, but they just won't.

Mississippians may not be able to read, but we sure can write, and have PSAT scores to prove it

Click to Enlarge

    The late author Willie Morris once said "Mississippians may not be able to read, but we sure can write." It was a reference to the unusually large number of notable authors coming from a state known for having a high illiteracy rate.
    I was looking over Mississippi's PSAT scores and found some amazing numbers. Mississippi has fewer top scorers on the PSAT than the South and nation, but Mississippi simply blows out the competition when it comes to the writing section.
    The chart I've presented is for the most recent scores only, but this isn't a one-year phenomenon. You can look at the scores yourself by clicking here. I consider myself fairly well informed about these types of tests, and I can't come up with a good reason why Mississippi's PSAT writing scores should be substantially higher than the regional and national average while our state our state has fewer top scorers in the reading and math sections.
    One could argue that fewer Mississippians take the PSAT in comparison to the nation at large, so that our test pool is composed of more able students. This is almost certainly true, but it doesn't explain the discrepancy between the reading, math, and writing scores. And the fact that 47.1 percent of Mississippians scored a 50 or above compared to 35.8 percent nationally is a huge and significant test gap.
    It should be noted that Mississippi's average reading and math PSAT scores are actually slightly higher than the national average; this is likely due to only better Mississippi students taking the PSAT to begin with -- fewer than one in four juniors takes the PSAT. But Mississippi produces a smaller percentage of high to very-high scorers in reading and math despite its elite testing pool.
    I don't have any answers, but I certainly found this interesting. My guess is that most people could care less.

The College Board trumpets SAT changes, but final outcomes will remain almost unchanged

    The College Board has announced that they are revamping the SAT. Once called the Scholastic Aptitude Test, SAT now stands for nothing.
    The SAT used to be an almost-perfect IQ test, and until 1995 it did the job so well that a high score was accepted by Mensa, the high-IQ society. It measured aptitude, not the ability to work hard, nor kindness, nor collegiality, nor a host of other factors that go into making one a success in life or in college.
    But the fact remains that all other things being equal someone with a high IQ is going to outperform someone with a low IQ. All other things being equal, a student with a high SAT score will outperform a student with a low SAT score. The best predictor of college success isn't high school grades alone, nor entrance examinations alone, but grades and exam scores used in tandem. Work ethic matters. A good work ethic combined with an above-average IQ matters even more.
    Americans hate the notion of IQ, particularly when expressed in its two-letter formulation. New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman recently gushed all over the pages of his newspaper with praise for comments made by a Google executive, who said his company no longer used IQ in the hiring process and now hired primarily based on cognitive ability. Friedman saw this as a wonderful change.
    Is Friedman, who is supposed to be an American opinion-shaper, too dull to understand that IQ and "cognitive ability" are exact synonyms? If this executive had declared that "Our employees no longer drive trucks to work; they now use pick-ups," would Friedman have the sense to understand that the man was speaking complete gibberish?
    Back to the SAT. The idea of changes made back in 1994 and 2005 were designed to muffle the test as a measure of mere IQ and to reward those students who work hard mastering certain skills. The thought was that this would reward hard-working students with lower IQs at the expense of high-IQ slackers. It hasn't worked out that way.
    A test which rewards hard work is going to help high-IQ students who work the hardest. Thus Asians, whose propensity for academic work is no secret, have tended to do quite well on the SAT. Highly intelligent students from a non-competitive academic environment have fared poorly. By attempting to measure hard work rather than merely IQ the makers of the SAT actually skewed it further in favor of the brightest students from the best high schools.
    The College Board claims that the changes to the SAT are designed to more closely align the test with current schoolwork. In reality the changes will likely increase the importance of IQ as a determining factor of SAT success.
    That's essentially the only two choices these test-makers have. They can test achievement and hard work and the winners will be those bright students who prepare the most. Or they can just test IQ and include some kids without a great work ethic or without access to a quality school.
    In the end, achievement is the handmaiden of intelligence. Changing the SAT will alter scores a bit, but the final message is going to be one that society simply does not want to hear:
    Some students are smarter than others, some students will work harder than others, students who prepare for any type of test will outperform those who don't, and some students will do well on virtually any test designed to measure intelligence or achievement.
    The College Board can change the SAT, but insofar as outcomes are concerned, little will change.

Oxford High School sets record with 12 National Merit semi-finalists

    The National Merit Scholarship Foundation has announced the names of Mississippi's semi-finalists and Oxford High School has set a record with 12 semi-finalists. The school had 11 semi-finalists in 2010. Congratulations are in order!
    Oxford tied Jackson Prep, which also had 12 semi-finalists, and came in second only to giant Madison Central, which had 21.
    Sixteen thousand students nationwide and 138 in Mississippi earned semi-finalist status. Most of these students will earn Finalist status by validating their score with the SAT test and by having good grades.
    Oxford High School winners were: Robert Adamson, Dora Chen, Taide Ding, Rosalie Doerksen, Chase Gladden, Harleigh E. Huggins, Samuel Mossing, Jimmy Pan, Jessica L. Pearson, David E. Rozier, Tiffany Torma and Yujing Zhang.
    I'm fairly certain that back when I took the PSAT test there was one national qualifying score. I didn't make it and was instead a "Commended" student. Today each state has a separate cutoff score, while the "Commended" score remains at the 98th percentile. Last year the cutoff for a Commendation was 203. This year a score of 204 in Mississippi earned Semi-finalist status, so there would be no fate more frustrating than to be "Commended" in Mississippi. Looks like nobody got stuck in that wagon. Other state cutoff scores include: W. Va., 200; Ala., 209; Texas, 216; N.J., Mass., and D.C., 221. Click here to see a list of all states and their cutoff scores. Note that boarding schools have higher cutoff scores!
    Scoring in the 98.1 to 98.3rd percentile isn't easy -- but it's easier than having to score in the high-99th percentile, which is what students in Massachusetts and a few other states have to do. For many students, it's a reachable goal.
    I get the feeling that a lot of students don't prepare for the PSAT. Yet diligent preparation can easily add a few points and capture Semi-Finalist status. And Finalist status can easily be worth $100,000 or more at a school like Ole Miss, Auburn, Alabama, or Oklahoma, which offer full- or nearly-full-ride scholarships to National Merit Finalists.
    The large number of Oxford Semi-finalists isn't an anomaly; it's the wave of the future as Oxford grows larger and attracts brighter students. Each year a slow trickle of students from Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville, Holly Springs, and elsewhere enrolls for the first time. Many of these students are from families that liked their local public or private school but are worried about the lack of Advanced Placement, foreign language, or other classes that an affluent school district like Oxford can offer. And Oxford has a cluster of high-IQ students which makes it attractive to parents looking for a place to place their own high-IQ children. For an interesting book on the benefits of clustering high-IQ students, see A Class Apart: Prodigies, Pressure, and Passion Inside One of America's Best High Schools
    This type of IQ clustering takes on a life of its own. Once a school establishes itself as having a substantial cluster of high-IQ students, parents of other high-IQ students will try to move in to allow their children to associate with their intellectual peers. College professors tend to have bright children; the presence of these bright children in the local school system can be a recruiting tool for the university.
    Last year my son took part in the Duke Tip program, where 7th-grade students take the ACT -- and a substantial number made a 20 or higher. Do a little number crunching and you soon realize that most of these students have a very good chance of earning National Merit honors in four years, barring illness or bad luck. My guess is that my son's class is in line to have a dozen or more National Merit scholars as well.
    In fact, my view is that if the school system would work to identify these high-ability students in fourth or fifth grade and give them an accelerated curriculum Oxford could easily have 20 National Merit Finalists each year. Right now the students are doing their job. It's time for the school district to step up to the plate and provide a more rigorous curriculum.
    Congratulations again to this year's winners. And to this year's juniors, you have about a month before you take the PSAT, so start studying. Oxford needs at least a dozen semi-finalists next year!

In many ways Julian Castro is another Obama

    San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro is being touted as the "next Obama," and in so many ways he is.
    Castro admits that he only got into Stanford as a result of affirmative action. He had a 1210 on the SAT, which after the 1995 test recentering would be about a 1300 today -- far short of what an Anglo, Asian, or Jew would need for Stanford. Who knows about his Harvard Law application, but history shows that people who benefited from affirmative action once will do so again.
    I don't understand affirmative action for Hispanics. As as group they've suffered very little discrimination. There have always been highly successful Hispanics in America, and only in recent years when we've had lots of poor border-jumpers have there been any poor, needy Hispanics in need of extra points on their college-admission or employment scores. But what about the poor whites living in the "hollers" of West Virginia, Kentucky and East Tennessee? Or for that matter every white person in Mississippi, where the schools set the academic pace at that of a a snail, afraid that if they actually teach anything the children will break? Don't these white people need affirmative action just as badly as Hispanics?
    In so many ways Castro is the next Obama. He made it through elite colleges as a result of affirmative action not available to the rest of us. And now he's given a rousing speech. A speech! All hail our next leader!
    A leader who has done virtually nothing save hold a San Antonio city council post, and who now holds a purely ceremonial mayoral post which pays $4,000 per year. That's right, $4,000. He's like the queen of England without the castle. As to how this man and his brother support themselves, that's another story.
    So we've got a man who's gotten a free ride whose main accomplishment in life is to have given a speech before a national audience. By Obama's standards this qualifies him to be president.
    One problem, though. There is very little "white guilt" insofar as Hispanics are concerned, and white guilt is what put Obama in office. Most of us consider Hispanics who adopt American-style dress, speech, and mannerisms and just whites with a tan. We don't discriminate against them and never have. They're just white people who Democrats want to keep corralled as a separate ethnic group for political purposes.
    As a potential presidential candidate, Julian Castro is an empty suit, just like the one we've got in the White House today. But I doubt this suit will make it out of San Antonio.