Monday, April 4, 2011

For Obama, it's Ohio or bust in the next election

    President Obama has kicked off his re-election campaign. Let the fun begin!
    The Mainstream Media is presenting this as a case where Obama is the overwhelming favorite to win re-election. I can't help but wonder, can these people read an electoral vote map?
    Obama was able to win in 2008 because people were sick and tired of George Bush, particularly his decision to embroil us in wars with no end. Obama has escalated the war in Afghanistan and attacked Libya for no reason. The middle east is now going to be embroiled in violence, gas prices will be through the roof, and it's all Obama's fault.
    We keep hearing that Obama isn't doing that well in public opinion polls. There is a bigger story behind these polls. In states like Vermont and Massachusetts, they still love the man. But in places like North Carolina and Indiana -- states Obama carried in 2008 -- he is as popular as smallpox.
    In short, you can count on the old Red State-Blue State map to return in the 2012 election. And because of population shifts have added votes to Red States and subtracted them from Blue States, it will return with a vengence.
    There is an interesting interactive election map at With this map you can make a few clicks and see what happens when states which almost always vote Republican return to the fold in 2012.
    I would give Obama zero chance of taking North Carolina, Indiana or Virginia. I find it highly unlikely that he will again take Florida. New Hampshire will likely return to the Republican fold. With that shift, Obama still leads 287 to 251.
    But the key is that Obama is highly unlikely to limit his losses to these almost-certain losers. He is left needing to carry lots of swing states that frequently go Republican. If he carries them all and loses Ohio, there is an Electoral College tie. This is a real possibility, although highly unlikely. If it should happen, the House of Representatives would elect the president, with each state getting one vote. So Obama loses here, too.
    I think the Republicans will take Ohio next time around. They should be able to pick up Colorado, New Mexico, Pennsylvania or Nevada to avoid an Electoral College tie.
    I think Obama has an uphill race. An Electoral College tie is considered the ultimate longshot, but right now I think it is more likely than an Obama win.
    STOP THE PRESSES! The above map and analysis fails to take into consideration Nebraska's split delegation in 2008. Obama squeaked out one electoral vote from that state but certainly will not get it again. So after accounting for Obama's certain losses, if Republicans take Ohio and Florida they win 271-269.
    Maybe it's time to go to, which takes political bets, and buy shares on Ohio and Florida govorners John Kasich and Mark Rubio for vice president. At this point I feel a lot more comfortable picking the Republican No. 2 man than the top gun.
    I can also guarantee that you will see a lot of campaigning in Ohio until election day. Ohio is the prize which wins or loses the next election.

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